Coffee prices on 08/15/2024: Increased significantly again

Coffee prices on August 15 globally

On 08/15/2024, coffee prices on both the London and New York exchanges increased.

On the London Exchange, Robusta prices for September 2024 delivery have risen sharply by $ 97, reaching $ 4,472/ton. For November 2024 delivery, prices have increased by $ 105, standing at $ 4,292/ton.

On the New York Exchange, Arabica prices for September 2024 delivery have risen by 4.3 cents, reaching 237 cents/lb. For December 2024 delivery, prices have increased by 5.6 cents, now at 234.65 cents/lb.

Coffee prices worldwide have increased significantly. The market has shown fluctuations since the beginning of the week.

The drop in the USD and the appreciation of the Brazilian real have stimulated strong buying on the exchanges. As of the latest survey, the DXY index, which measures the value of the US dollar against six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF), stands at 102.66.

Recent data from the US shows a cooling of inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may soon cut interest rates.

Weather conditions, particularly frost, have been chaotic, and speculators are keeping their investments safe. Additionally, a significant drop in gold prices has redirected some capital away from coffee. Agronomists have noted that the light and localized frost in Brazil primarily affects the southern regions of the country and does not significantly impact coffee and sugarcane-growing areas.

Moreover, the forecasted decrease in coffee production continues to create supply shortages, driving up prices.

Thus, global coffee prices on 08/15/2024, have risen significantly compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices on August 15 domestically

In the domestic market, coffee prices on August 15 have increased slightly by VND 400 compared to yesterday.

Specifically, in Lam Dong Province, the districts of Di Linh, Bao Loc, and Lam Ha are trading at VND 116,900/kg.

In Dak Lak Province, the price in Cu M'gar district is VND 117,600/kg, while Ea H'leo and Buon Ho districts are trading at VND 117,500/kg.

In Dak Nong Province, traders in Gia Nghia and Dak R'lap are trading at VND 117,600 and VND 117,500/kg, respectively.

In Gia Lai Province, Chu Prong district is trading at VND 117,500/kg, while Pleiku and La Grai districts are holding at VND 117,400/kg.

In Kon Tum Province, the buying price today is VND 117,500/kg.

Domestic coffee prices have increased slightly by VND 300 - 400, pushing the prices close to VND 118,000/kg.

At the end of the first 10 months of the 2023/24 coffee season (from October 2023 to July 2024), Vietnam's coffee exports reached over 1.3 million tons, which is equivalent to 90% of the current season’s production and represents a 12.4% decrease compared to the same period last season.

Excluding the inventory carried over from the previous year, Vietnam will have approximately 130,000 tons of coffee left to export in the remaining 2 months of the 2023/24 season (from August to the end of September).

The reduced production this year, combined with low carryover inventory, is the main reason for the continuous decline in Vietnam's coffee exports over the past 6 months.

The Agency of Foreign Trade (Ministry of Industry and Trade) forecasts that Vietnam's coffee exports will continue to decrease in the remaining months of Quarter 3 of 2024 due to low supply. Supply is expected to increase again in October when the 2024/25 coffee harvest season begins.

For the 2023/24 season, Vietnam's coffee production is estimated at 1.47 million tons, the lowest in 4 years, down 20% compared to the 2022/23 season, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. The production of this crop in the 2024/25 season is likely to continue to decline due to adverse weather conditions.

Thus, on 08/15/2024, domestic coffee prices are trading around VND 116,900 - 117,600/kg.