Vietnamese arabica coffee prices reach an all-time high

According to traders within the coffee industry, the price of raw arabica coffee beans from the Central Highlands has exhibited a consistent upward trend during the first half of January 2024. On the very first day of the new year, coffee prices reached a record-high level of over 68,000 Vietnamese dong per kilogram. By January 16th, coffee prices had surpassed the 71,000 Vietnamese dong per kilogram mark. This current price level is believed to be the highest in the history of the Vietnamese coffee industry.

The surge in coffee prices at the beginning of the year is partially attributed to the tensions in the Red Sea region. The bottleneck of the maritime traffic through the Suez Canal has raised concerns regarding a potential shortage of Robusta coffee supply from Asia.

The decline in coffee exports from Vietnam is also contributing to the risk of a Robusta coffee shortage. According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, Vietnam exported 370,635 tons of coffee during the first three months of the 2023/2024 crop, which lasted from October 2023 to September 2024. This figure marked a decrease of 9.87% compared to the same period in the 2022/2023 crop.

Mr. Do Ha Nam, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association (Vicofa), estimated that Vietnam's total coffee yield for the 2023/2024 crop will decrease by 5 to 10% compared to the previous crop, reaching between 1.6 and 1.7 million tons.

Unfavorable weather conditions in India, a key Robusta coffee-producing country, are also impacting coffee prices. Unseasonal heavy rainfall in Karnataka and Kerala is signaling the risk of a coffee crop failure in India. India has been ranked among the top ten leading coffee-producing countries globally. Additionally, India is ranked fourth globally in terms of Robusta coffee production after Vietnam, Brazil, and Indonesia, with a total yield exceeding 300,000 tons. Consequently, the potential coffee crop failure in India will influence Robusta coffee prices globally.

According to the ICE Report Center, Robusta coffee inventories decreased by an additional 1,170 tons on January 15, which is a decrease of 8.92% compared to that of the previous week. As a result, coffee inventories reached a new record low of 31,940 tons since early September 2023.

The aforementioned factors are driving Robusta coffee prices to rise rapidly on the global market. During the January 15 trading session on the London market, the price of Robusta coffee scheduled for delivery in March 2024 reached 2,998 USD per ton.

Farmers stockpiling coffee and refraining from selling their inventories are also contributing significantly to the increase in coffee prices. When the price of raw arabica coffee beans exceeded 50,000 Vietnamese dong per kilogram during the 2022/2023 crop, the majority of Vietnamese coffee farmers rushed to sell their harvest. Subsequently, when coffee prices surpassed 60,000 Vietnamese dong per kilogram and peaked at 70,000 Vietnamese dong per kilogram, farmers earned minimal profits.

However, with the rapidly rising price of arabica coffee during the 2023/2024 crop, which ranges from over 60,000 Vietnamese dong per kilogram to 70,000 Vietnamese dong per kilogram, coffee farmers in the Central Highlands are stockpiling their coffee harvest. Notably, many coffee farmers plan to only sell a portion of their stockpile during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, despite the prospects of considerable profits.