Middle East tensions impacting fertilizer markets

Josh Linville says the escalating Israel – Iran conflict has sent urea prices sharply higher as both countries slow production.

“We’re up $75 to 80 bucks a ton, and the crazier thing is,” he says, “if you look at the price volatility, we’ll be looking at price movements of well over $100 a ton in a matter of four or five days of trade.”

He tells Brownfield that Egypt’s production has also been reduced, and the Russia – Ukraine war was already squeezing global supplies.

“If you look at the world from last year’s numbers,” he says, “in 2024, Iran was the third largest urea exporter in the world; Egypt is number four, and Russia is number one.”

Linville says the timing of the price spike means most U.S. farmers should just keep an eye on the situation.

“If their next round of urea application isn’t until spring of next year, that is a long ways away.”  He says, “That’s a lot of time for this market to kind of shake itself out. It’s just hard to pull the trigger this early, this high.”

Linville says Iran is also a top ten global exporter of anhydrous ammonia, and Israel is the fourth largest potash producer in the world, but there’ve been no reports of production interruptions of those key agricultural inputs.