Several fertilizer types might reach unprecedented heights

On April 22, the retail price of Chinese DAP was VND 1,340,000 per pack, compared to VND 1,120,000 for domestic DAP. Potash was VND 975,000 per pack, and Urea was VND 910,000 per pack.

Fertilizer costs are expected to continue to rise in the coming time, particularly for DAP and Potash. DAP's products sold out owing to an inconsistent supply source and low inventory, while imports were difficult due to restricted supplies in the worldwide market.

Russia may extend fertilizer export quotas until the end of the year rather than May, although fertilizer shipments to hostile nations are still prohibited. The Middle East continues to face an ammonia scarcity, while China continues to reduce fertilizer capacity, with many facilities operating at less than 50% capacity, resulting in environmental issues and input material shortages.

As a result, international fertilizer supplies are difficult to increase at a time when China and Russia are threatening to tighten export restrictions. Facilities' input materials, particularly sulfur and ammonia, are increasing, leaving manufacturers with no incentive to lower costs.

In light of the scenario, Mr. Vu Duy Hai, Director-General of Vinacam, predicts that the price of imported DAP 64 would increase to VND 28-30 million per ton in the third quarter of this year.

The domestic source of Potash inventory is also running out, forcing Vietnam to buy at the new world market price. As a result, the price of Potash is expected to reach VND 20-22 million per ton for powdered Potash and VND 23-25 million per ton for Potash flakes by the third quarter of this year.