Impact of solar cycle on corn, soybean prices

Proving that is a much more difficult task. There are many studies showing links between the number of sunspots and general solar activity with events on earth.

World Weather, Inc. has used the 11-year and 22-year solar cycle as a leading tool in the prediction of general weather adversity in its long-range forecasting for years, and now that the sun is near its peak of sunspot activity it is time to review its potential influence on the planet from a weather perspective.

First a little definition is needed here. The “solar cycle” is the term given to the cyclical nature of solar activity. In this particular case the solar cycle begins when there are a minimum number of sunspots noted above the surface of the sun. A sunspot is a darker area seen through a telescope high above the surface of the sun in its atmosphere. The spot appears due to magnetic field changes of huge proportions that induce small pockets of less intensive heat emitting from the sun.

The solar cycle begins when these spots are seen only rarely and for some period of time there may be no sunspots and solar flares or eruptions (when energy is released from the sun) become suppressed and few in number. Typically over a period of five to six years after the minimum of sunspot activity occurs there is a steady increase in the number of sunspots. The peak of the solar cycle occurs when the sunspot numbers reach a maximum number and the amount of solar flares and eruptions from the sun’s surface are occurring frequently and with great intensity.

World Weather, Inc. often has demonstrated the tendency for multi-year La Niña events to occur between the solar minimum and the solar maximum. During that period of time drought seems to occur more often in the middle latitudes throughout the world. The more recent solar minimum occurred in 2020 and a multi-year La Niña event evolved and dominated the period 2020-23.

Prolonged La Niña events reduce rainfall in the middle latitudes causing lower humidity and greatly swinging temperature extremes. Another five to six years of declining solar activity usually follows the solar maximum, making the total period of time from the solar minimum to the maximum and back to the next minimum is 10 to 12 years, or as it is commonly referred to as the “11-year” cycle.

There is a tendency that every other 11-year solar cycle tends to generate more severe weather anomalies around the world. The early 2020s were a part of that 22-year solar cycle and the weather extremes seen around the world in those years were more severe than at any other time during any of the solar cycles, and that is a trend that can be found over and over in the weather records. The 1930s, 1950s, the late 1970s and 1998-2002 and more recently 2020-23 were periods of extreme weather associated with the 22-year solar cycle.

Scientists believe the solar cycle recently has peaked in its activity. The peak of this solar cycle may have occurred in August 2024. If that is the case, there are several assessments that can be made about weather in 2025.  First, there is a tendency for the winter in North America that follows the solar maximum to be colder than usual. That cold bias usually shows up in Canada during January and then occurs across a larger part of North America during February and especially March. The current cold weather trend in North America certainly fits into that mold. The influence of solar activity is always additive to whatever weather pattern is prevailing at the time of the solar maximum or minimum, making it difficult to see the influence at times.

There is also a tendency for the month of April to be warmer than usual in the United States. June is often warmer than usual in British Columbia, the US Pacific Northwest, the western US Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states.  Precipitation is usually well mixed across Canada’s Prairies during the January through April period, staying generally close to normal with a slight wetter bias. Canada’s Prairies tend to be drier biased in May and June and rainfall is often well above normal in the southern US Plains in May and across the Midwest during June. The US Gulf of Mexico coast states usually have a slight drier-than-usual bias. The southern US Plains and lower Midwest also have a tendency to be wetter biased in July.

Looking further at the weather anomalies that typically occur in North America during the growing season that follow the solar maximum reveals another interesting phenomenon with corn and soybean production and prices.  Since weather anomalies in the United States are not usually very severe near and immediately following the solar maximum one would not expect a huge move higher on corn and soybean futures prices. Indeed, that has been the case. 

Since 1960 there has been a tendency for corn and soybean futures prices to be only modestly higher one year after the solar maximum occurs, which includes 2025. In most cases the monthly futures prices were similar or slightly higher one year after the growing season that occurs during the solar maximum. The implication of this is not necessarily the best news for producers and traders because it suggests futures prices are unlikely to be dramatically higher in September this year than they were in September 2024 — at least if the solar cycle has anything to say about the situation.