Coffee prices on 03/13/2024: The market increased simultaneously

Coffee prices on March 13 around the world

In the world, the London and New York exchange prices on March 13 simultaneously increased slightly.

In particular, the price of Robusta on the London exchange for delivery in May 2024 increased by $ 28; reaching $ 3,307/ton. And the price for the July 2024 delivery term increased by $ 23; at $ 3,198/ton.

On the New York exchange, the price of Arabica delivered in May 2024 increased slightly by 0.9 cents; and reached 185.90 cents/lb. The price for the delivery term in July 2024 increased by 0.95 cents; at 184.10 cents/lb.

World coffee prices today increased slightly again after the previous sharp decline due to profit-taking by speculators. 

In a recent report, the Agency of Foreign Trade said that, despite concerns that supply is being tightened due to international maritime transport problems and increasing global demand, global prices of this agricultural product are forecast to be under downward pressure in the near future due to sell-off activities by funds and speculators.

The above assessment is based on the following factors. ICE inventory reporting data increased significantly on both exchanges. As of February 23, Robusta inventory certified and monitored by the London exchange increased by 2,910 tons (equivalent to an increase of 14.5%) compared to the previous week, up to 23,000 tons (about 383,333 bags, 60 kg/bag). 

In addition, Vietnam's coffee exports are estimated to increase sharply in the first 2 months of 2024 and the expected output in Brazil in the 2024/25 crop year is higher than previous forecasts due to reduced dry weather, while USD/BRL exchange rate fluctuations have encouraged Brazilians to boost export sales.

At the end of February, the increase in Robusta prices slowed down while Arabica prices decreased due to increased risk concerns over the possibility that the US economy will face recession again. This causes funds and speculation to shift capital flows to look for markets with more attractive profits. In addition, reports of a sharp increase in inventory have caused a sell-off by funds and speculators, affecting the price of this agricultural product. 

In addition, the latest ICO report shows that global production in the 2023/24 crop year for this commodity increased by 5.8% compared to the previous crop year to 178 million bags. Of which, Arabica's output increased by 8.8% to 102.2 million bags and Robusta's production increased by 2.1% to 75.8 million bags.

It is expected that consumption will increase by 2.2% to 177 million bags, and the world market will have a surplus of 1 million bags in the 2023/24 crop year.  

Thus, world coffee prices on 03/13/2024 increased slightly compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices on March 13 in the country

The domestic market price on March 13 increased by VND 500/kg compared to yesterday.

Specifically, in Lam Dong province, 3 districts of Di Linh, Bao Loc and Lam Ha are trading coffee at the same level of VND 90,700/kg.

In Dak Lak, Cu M'gar district today is purchasing coffee at VND 91,500/kg. Ea H'leo and Buon Ho districts are trading coffee at a price of VND 91,400/kg. 

In Dak Nong province, traders Gia Nghia and Dak R'lap are trading coffee at VND 91,600 and VND 91,500/kg, respectively. 

In Gia Lai province, Chu Prong district is trading coffee at VND 91,400/kg, while Pleiku and La Grai are maintaining the same price at VND 91,300/kg.

The purchasing price in Kon Tum today is VND 91,300/kg.

Domestic coffee prices today increased again and are gradually moving towards a high threshold of VND 92,000/kg.

Mr. Do Ha Nam - Vice President of VICOFA assessed that this price level for agricultural products last week was unprecedented. According to him, the reason is the reduced supply on the market. In Vietnam, the domestic supply is still over 30%, however, many establishments hoard goods, causing prices to increase rapidly. 

According to this association's forecast, Vietnam's coffee output in the 2023/24 crop year will decrease by 10% due to the effects of climate change, farmers switched to investing in crops with high economic efficiency such as durian and fruit trees.

Thus, the domestic coffee price on 03/13/2024 is trading around the threshold of VND 90,700 - 91,600/kg.