The price of live pig is forecast to remain high until the first quarter of 2025

Because it is in the off-peak period of consumption, the price of live pig in the Southeast in the first half of August continued to trend downward. On August 13, the price of live pig in this area was around VND 63,000/kg, a decrease of more than VND 3,000/kg compared to the average price in July. However, the current price of live pig is over 4,000 VND/kg higher than the same period last year.

Thus, the price of live pig has been in a downward trend since July. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in July, live pig prices across the country tended to decrease compared to June, fluctuating between VND 62,000 and VND 66,000/kg.

Specifically, in July, the price of live pig in the Northern region fluctuated at VND 64,000–66,000/kg, down VND 2,000–3,000/kg compared to the end of June. In the Central and Central Highlands regions, the price of live pig was VND 62,000–65,000/kg, down VND 1,000–2,000/kg compared to the end of June. In the Southern region, the price of live pig was VND 62,000–66,000/kg, down VND 2,000–4,000/kg compared to the end of June.

The price of live pig is tending to decrease, but for pig farmers, the current price of over VND 60,000/kg is acceptable because it ensures farmers earn a certain profit. Pig farmers are concerned about how the price of live pig will be in the remaining months of the year.

According to Mr. Nguyen Tri Cong, Chairman of the Dong Nai Livestock Association, in 2023, the low price of live pig affected the repopulation at many farms and farmer households. This year, the complicated disease situation also caused pig output to continue to decline. Up to now, although the disease is gradually being controlled, the loss has been at a significant level. It is estimated that the reduction in live pig output in Dong Nai could be up to 20%.

Due to the sharp decline in output, combined with the high price of live pig in surrounding countries (approximately VND 60,000/kg in Laos and Thailand and around VND 70,000/kg in China), Mr. Cong forecasts that if the price of live pig in Dong Nai in the coming time decreases, it will not reduce to below VND 60,000/kg. At the same time, from now until the first quarter of 2025, the price of live pig will fluctuate from over VND 60,000 to under VND 70,000/kg.

The decrease in imported pork this year also contributed to the increase in the domestic price of live pig. According to the Import and Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), in the first quarter of 2024, Vietnam imported 11,450 tons of pork, worth USD 25.98 million, down 12.5% in volume and 18.9% in value compared to the same period in 2023.

In the second quarter, pork imports increased sharply compared to the first quarter, reaching 27,000 tons, worth USD 60.69 million (up 99.6% in volume and 99.5% in value compared to the first quarter of 2024, but down 0.1% in volume and 16.3% in value compared to the second quarter of 2023). In the first 6 months of the year, the amount of imported pork decreased significantly compared to the same period last year.

The Analysis Center of Tien Phong Securities Joint Stock Company commented that pig prices tend to increase thanks to greater demand in the context that the supply has not repopulated in time after the African swine fever (ASF) epidemic. Currently, many businesses and small-scale livestock households are in the process of repopulating their herds after the ASF epidemic, and it will take at least until December 2024 to have new supply on the market.

According to experts from Maybank IBG Research, the price of live pig may continue to increase in the coming time, but the increase amplitude will not be as strong as in the first 5 months of the year. In the short term, the price of live pig may be supported by reduced supply due to losses of small-scale producers and disease outbreaks.

The price of live pig in many Asian countries is currently at a high level. According to Genesus' Global Market Report, on August 7, the price of live pig in China was equivalent to more than VND 72,000/kg, in the Philippines to more than VND 74,000/kg, and in South Korea to nearly VND 95,000/kg.