The low price of cashew is an opportunity to boost global consumption

According to the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas), international experts in the nut industry share the opinion that between the year 2023 and 2024, the yield and harvested output of most nut varieties will remain relatively stable.

According to a report made in May 2023 by the Almond Board of California, the US is expected to produce approximately 2.57 billion pounds of almond in 2023 with 1.3 million acres of almond plantations. This is a decrease of 11.8% compared to the last year's crop of 2.91 billion pounds. Approximately 2.191 billion pounds of almonds were traded between early January 2023 and late May 2023. The unproductive harvest season during the flowering period between February and March in the US raised concerns regarding limited supply in 2023 and the following years. However, the weather in June has been favorable for the growth of almond trees in the US.

The 2023/2024 pistachio harvest is forecast to increase considerably due to bountiful crops in the United States and Iran. According to a report made by the International Nut and Dried Fruits Council (INC) at the General Meeting on May 2023, the global production of pistachio nuts in 2023 is forecast to reach 1,022 million tons, which is an increase of 37% compared to last year's crop of 747,000 tons. The total supply to the global market increased from 1,058 million tons in 2022 to 1.238 million tons in 2023, which is an increase of 17%. Accordingly, the global production of pistachios has increased steadily over the past ten years.

The global walnut harvest is forecast to reach 896,000 tons in the 2023 crop year, which is an increase of 19.8% compared to last year's crop of 747,870 tons. Walnut consumption in the US, Chile and China, three of the world's largest walnut producing and exporting countries, have significantly improved in recent years.

South Africa, Australia and Kenya have benefitted from productive crops of macadamia nuts. The global macadamia nut harvest is forecast to increase by 11.7% in 2023. Macadamia nut consumption in China has also been predicted to increase significantly this year.

The total groundnut acreage in the U.S. continues to expand in 2023 with approximately 1.547 million newly planted acres, which is an increase of 6.7% compared to 2022. Other forecasts have reported a slightly higher increase of 8 to 10% with a total yield between 3.05 and 3.2 million tons. This level of output is able to satisfy the US market's need for nearly 3 million tons of groundnut per year.

There are substantial hazelnut harvests in Turkey, Italy, and the United States. Most notably, Turkey has an annual harvest of approximately 200,000 tons. However, the number of hazelnuts exported from Turkey in the first six months of 2023 fell slightly.

Although certain types of nuts have seen an increase in consumption in several markets, the overall global consumption of nuts is rapidly declining due to inflation, economic recessions, the prolonged Russia - Ukraine conflict and so on. The stagnated consumption has caused numerous difficulties for the nut industry as the price of raw materials decreases. These factors heavily affected Vietnam's cashew industry as the price of cashew kernels continues its downward trend.

Vietnam's cashew industry exported over 279 thousand tons of cashew nuts in the first six months of 2023 for a total turnover of 1.6 billion USD. Accordingly, this is an increase of 9.49% in volume and 7.65% in value. However, Vietnamese cashew kernels were only priced at an average of 5,717 USD per ton, which is a decrease of 1.73% over the same period in 2022.

Conversely, the low price of cashew nuts also provides an opportunity to promote the consumption of this produce. According to Mr. Nguyen Minh Hoa, Vice Chairman of Vinacas and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Bimico Company Limited in Tay Ninh province, cashew kernels are currently affordable for the majority of consumers. Additionally, cashews are still one of the favorite foods for consumers in Europe and North America. As a result, retailers around the world are deploying various promotional programs in order to stimulate shopping demand. Subsequently, Vietnam's cashew kernel exports will be stabilized for the remainder of 2023. Vietnam's total cashew kernel exports can potentially reach 3.2 billion USD by the end of the year.

However, according to Mr. Hoa, the production and trading activities performed by Vietnamese cashew processing companies are disrupted due to the disparity between the import price of raw cashews and the price of cashew kernels. Moreover, the global source of raw cashew nuts is currently saturated, so it is difficult for the price of cashew kernels to rise in the last six months of 2023. Consequently, businesses must calculate thoroughly in order to ensure optimal economic efficiency.