October CPI higher, despite cooling food inflation

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for baked foods and cereal products rose at a higher rate sequentially and year-over-year in October, despite a slowdown in inflation for the overall food-at-home index, according to the US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The Cereals and Bakery Products index for October, not seasonally adjusted, came in at 359% of the 1982-84 average, up 0.8% from September and up 0.9% from a year earlier. That marked an uptick from September, when the cereals and bakery index rose 0.1% on both a monthly and annual basis.

For all food-at-home, the October index was 308.2, an increase of 0.1% from September and 1.1% from October 2023, BLS reported. In comparison, food-at-home price inflation grew 0.4% monthly and 1.3% annually in September.

“Today’s CPI numbers illustrate once again that − while the process of bringing down overall inflation continues to be a work in progress − food price inflation remains on a solid path,” Andy Harig, vice president of tax, trade, sustainability and policy development at FMI-The Food Industry Association, said after BLS released the October CPI data on Nov. 13. “The October numbers for food-at-home show that prices increased just 0.1% for the month and fell to 1.1% year over year.”

The total food index was 332.7 in October, a gain of 0.2% from September and 2.1% from a year ago. Within that segment, the food-away-from-home index for October came in at 372.5, up 0.2% month to month and 3.8% year over year.

On an unadjusted basis, the October CPI for all items was at 315.7% of the 1982-84 average, inching up 0.1% from the previous month and 2.6% from a year earlier. Less food and energy, the CPI for October was 321.8, rising 0.2% from September and 3.3% from October 2023.

“With Thanksgiving around the corner, the good news for consumers is that many traditional items will cost less than last year,” Harig said. “According to USDA and US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, turkey prices are down by as much as 11% this year. Additionally, ham prices are projected to drop 2.5%, while potatoes are expected to cost 3.5% less. Other items like apples (-13%), fresh cranberries (-5%) and frozen pies (-0.7%) are also expected to be more affordable.

“The food industry is rising to the occasion to assist shoppers in managing their grocery budgets this holiday season,” he added.

Of the 18 product sub-indexes tracked by Milling & Baking News, a sister publication of World Grain, just five saw month-to-month decreases and two posted year-over-year declines in October, with the remaining categories generating gains in both periods, according to BLS data.

For cereals and cereal products, the October CPI was 287.7, up 0.5% from September and 0.3% from October 2023. Indexes within that included flour and prepared mixes, 322.7, down 0.9% on a monthly basis but up 0.4% from a year ago; breakfast cereal, 278.1, up 0.6% from the prior month and down 0.1% year-over-year; and rice, pasta and corn meal, 292.9, up 1% month to month and 0.7% versus a year earlier.

The bakery products price index for October climbed to 400.6, marking gains of 0.9% from September and 1.2% from October 2023.

In the bakery category, the October product indexes were as follows: bread at 241.9, up 1.9% monthly and 0.1% annually; white bread at 435.4, up 1.2% month-to-month but down 1.4% year over-year; bread other than white at 474.8, up 2.8% from the previous month and 1.7% from a year ago;  and fresh biscuits, rolls and muffins in September at 239.6, up 3.1% month-to-month August and 2.3% year-over-year.

Also part of the bakery segment, the October index for cakes, cupcakes and cookies was 373.9, down 0.9% from September yet up 1.7% from October 2023. Components of that index included fresh cakes and cupcakes at 392.6, down 0.3% monthly but up 0.6% versus a year earlier, as well as cookies at 355.3, down 0.9% from the prior month yet up 2.5% from a year ago.

The other bakery products price index in October was 359.1, rising 0.6% from September and 1.2% from October 2023. Within that group, the October indexes included fresh sweet rolls, coffee cakes and doughnuts at 401.3, up 1.4% month-to-month and 2% year-over-year; crackers, bread and cracker products at 435.8, down 0.2% from the previous month and up 2.4% from a year earlier; and frozen/refrigerated bakery products, pies, tarts and turnovers at 349.9, up 2.2% from a month ago and 0.1% versus a year ago.