Coffee prices slip on rain in Brazil and weakness in the Brazilian real

Coffee prices today are moderately lower on forecasts for rain in Brazil.  Meteorologist Climatempo said Brazil's top coffee-producing areas should receive large amounts of rain starting this weekend, easing drought concerns and benefiting Brazil's coffee crop.   Also, weakness in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) weighs on coffee prices as the real fell to a 2-1/4 month low against the dollar today, encouraging export selling from Brazil's coffee producers.

Excessive dryness in Brazil may curb coffee yields and is a bullish price factor.  Rainfall in Brazil has consistently been below average since April, damaging coffee trees during the all-important flowering stage and reducing the prospects for Brazil's 2025/26 arabica coffee crop.  Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil's Minas Gerais region received 33.4 mm of rain over the past week, or 99% of the historical average.  Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil's arabica crop.

Tightness in coffee inventories is limiting losses in coffee prices.  ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 4-1/4 month low of 795,874 bags on October 3, and ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a 5-month low of 4,054 lots today.  Coffee inventories had recently recovered as ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 1-1/2 year high of 858,474 bags on September 12, up from the 24-year low of 224,066 bags posted in November 2023.  Also, ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories on July 25 rose to a 1-year high of 6,521 lots, up from the record low of 1,958 lots posted in February 2024.

A negative factor for coffee was last Monday's report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) that global coffee exports rose +6.5% y/y in August to 10.92 million bags and that global exports during Oct-Aug rose +9.9% y/y to 125.67 million bags.

Last Wednesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil's Sep green coffee exports rose +34% y/y to 4.1 million bags.  The rise in Brazil's green coffee exports was consistent with other recent news showing higher exports.  Also, Cecafe reported on July 11 that Brazil's 2023/24 coffee exports rose +33% y/y to a record 47.3 million bags.  

On September 26, Dec arabica coffee soared to a 13-year nearest-futures high, and Nov robusta rose to a contract high.  Coffee prices saw strength as adverse weather in key coffee-producing countries threatened global coffee production.  Brazil has been facing the driest weather since 1981, according to the natural disaster monitoring center Cemaden.  R

Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by fears that excessive dryness in Vietnam will damage coffee crops and curb future global robusta production.  Vietnam's agriculture department said on March 26 that Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years, due to drought.  The USDA FAS on May 31 projected that Vietnam's robusta coffee production in the new marketing year of 2024/25 will dip slightly to 27.9 million bags from 28 million bags in the 2023/24 season.  Last Wednesday, the General Department of Vietnam Customs reported that Vietnam's September coffee exports fell -32.6% m/m to 51,369 MT and that Vietnam's Jan-Sep coffee exports fell -11.7% y/y to 1.1 MMT.

In a supportive factor for coffee prices, Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, cut its 2024 Brazil coffee production forecast on September 19 to 54.8 million bags from 58.8 million bags forecast in May.

In a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said on May 3 that 2023/24 global coffee production climbed +5.8% y/y to 178 million bags due to an exceptional off-biennial crop year.  ICO also said global 2023/24 coffee consumption rose +2.2% y/y to 177 million bags, resulting in a 1 million bag coffee surplus.

The USDA's bi-annual report on June 20 was bearish for coffee prices.  The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024/25 will increase +4.2% y/y to 176.235 million bags, with a +4.4% increase in arabica production to 99.855 million bags and a +3.9% increase in robusta production to 76.38 million bags.  The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2024/25 ending stocks will climb by +7.7% to 25.78 million bags from 23.93 million bags in 2023/24.  The USDA's FAS projects that Brazil's 2024/25 arabica production would climb +7.3% y/y to 48.2 mln bags due to higher yields and increased planted acreage.  The USDA's FAS also forecasts that 2024/54 coffee production in Colombia, the world's second-largest arabica producer, will climb +1.6% y/y to 12.4 mln bags.