Rice exports will continue to be favorable

The impressive growth of rice exports

At the Conference "Assessing the situation of rice export in the first quarter of 2023 and the direction of rice export management in the coming time” organized by the Ministry of Industry and Trade in Ho Chi Minh City on April 26, Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Nam, Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) said that from the beginning of the year to mid-April, Vietnam exported nearly 2.4 million tons of rice, worth $1.25 billion, up 34% in volume and 45% in turnover compared to the same period in 2022.

Report from the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that rice is one of the few key export items that is growing well in the first months of this year. The increased demand from the import markets and the increasing quality of Vietnamese rice are the main reasons for such strong growth of rice exports. 

Mr. Tran Quoc Toan, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), said that China's announcement of reopening is a positive signal for Vietnamese rice exporters. According to the data from the General Administration of Customs of China. in the first two months of 2023, while China reduced rice imports from India, Pakistan, and Thailand, this country sharply increased its imports from Vietnam. As a result, Vietnam's market share is increased in China's total rice imports to 19.2%, much higher than the 6.7% market share in the same period last year.

Philippines maintaining rice import tax at 35% until the end of 2023 is expected to benefit Vietnamese rice businesses. Indonesia needs to import 2 million tons of rice reserves this year, of which 500,000 tons must be imported as soon as possible. These are favorable conditions for Vietnam's rice exports.

Vietnam's rice exports in the first quarter this year recorded good growth compared to the same period in 2022 in both traditional markets (increased by 44.8% in the Philippines market; increased by 118.8% in the China market) and potential markets (increased by 25 times in the Chile market; increased by nearly 30% in the Singapore market).

In particular, the value of rice exports to the EU recorded very good growth in many markets thanks to the export of fragrant rice products, high-quality rice with high added value. This shows that the quality of Vietnamese rice has improved immensely, meeting the requirements of even strict markets. At the same time, there is potential for Vietnamese rice to expand the market and increase the market share.

Continue to be favorable

The situation of rice exports from now until the end of the year is forecasted to continue to be favorable. Regarding production, Mr. Nguyen Van Doan (Department of Crop Production), said that we have just had a good winter-spring crop with great prices in the southern provinces and cities. It is forecasted that the summer-autumn and autumn-winter rice crops in the Mekong Delta this year will continue to be stable. Therefore, for the whole year, the Mekong Delta will maintain a rice production of 24 million tons. After deducting the amount of rice for domestic consumption, there will be 6.5 - 6.6 million tons of rice for export. Even the amount of rice for export can be up to 7 million tons.

While rice production in Vietnam is stable, production in many other major exporting countries faces many difficulties due to weather. According to Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Nam, at a recent meeting between VFA and the Thailand Rice Exporters Association, the Thailand side said that earlier this year, they set a target to export 8.5 million tons of rice. Due to the influence of weather and a number of other reasons, had to adjust to a downward direction, currently only targeting 7.5 million tons. India is likely to reduce rice exports this year due to the influence of El Nino. Meanwhile, climate change, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and high global inflation force many countries to increase their rice stocks. 

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that the Philippines will increase rice imports between now and mid-2023 due to a decrease in domestic rice production. At the same time, typhoons will seriously affect the Philippines at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter of this year. The increase in rice imports will bring the Philippines' total imports in 2023 to 3.4 million tons of rice.

The Indonesian government has announced that it will import 2 million tons of rice for the national reserve in 2023, of which 500,000 tons will be made as soon as possible. The national reserve of imported rice will be used in the program to stabilize rice prices, support rice for 21.53 million poor households and use it for other purposes.

Indonesia also said that Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, Myanmar, and India are five potential rice suppliers for this country's rice imports in 2023. Major markets such as China, Bangladesh... are also increasing their rice imports. 

According to the FAO report, the world food supply forecast (2022-2023) gives out warning of a shrotage of 25 - 28 million tons of food (mostly wheat, coarse grains, maize, and rice due to the impact Russia-Ukraine conflict), 5 million tons of raw materials and 3 million tons of vegetable oil. Food insecurity has been going on for many years but the situation remains intense globally due to many factors. affecting and threatening world security as well as political and economic stability, especially in Africa - the country which suffers the most damage due to its dependence on food imports.