Rice and pork prices increase slightly, vegetable prices decrease at the year-end

Most prices are stable

According to the Department of Agricultural Product Processing and Market Development, rice prices tend to increase slightly in the world's demand in the first six months of the year. Still, they tend to decrease in July and August and increase back in September.

In general, in the first 9 months of the year, rice prices in the North tend to increase, rice prices in the South tend to decrease compared to the same period in 2021 and remain stable in the first half of October.

For vegetables and fruits in the first nine months of the year and the first half of October 2022, the prices of vegetables and fruits were relatively stable, with no unusual fluctuations due to abundant supply. Prices of fruits were stable in the first nine months of the year. Some fruits tended to decrease slightly in June and July due to the primary season and abundant supply, such as lychee, mango, and dragon fruit...

In the livestock sector, in the first 9 months of the year and the first half of October, prices were not unusual movements. However, in the first 3 months of the year, prices increased slightly during and after the Lunar New Year due to increased demand but then decreased again. 

Specifically, the price of pork, although still at a high level compared to before the appearance of African swine fever, has decreased sharply compared to the same period last year. Live hog prices fluctuated between VND 56,000 - 63,000 per kilogram in September. (down by VND 5,000 - 8,000 per kilogram compared to August) but the first half of October fluctuated according to the increasing trend in many places (about VND 1,000 - 4,000 per kilogram).

Meanwhile, the price of poultry products tends to decrease due to abundant supply, while the demand for this item in restaurants, collective kitchens, and schools is still relatively low.

Regarding seafood, in the first 9 months of the year and the first half of October 2022, raw pangasius and shrimp prices fluctuated up and down. Still, they tended to increase in recent months due to the good development of pangasius farming and the increasing demand. The world market demand also increased, and the price of farmed shrimp was high and remained at a stable level.

Meanwhile, domestic fertilizer prices increased and decreased but generally increased over the same period every year because the supply was affected by the political conflict between Russia and Ukraine, causing the world fertilizer price to increase, the price of finished fertilizer. , input materials are at a high level.

As for animal feed products, the price of raw materials for animal feed and the cost of mixed animal feed tends to increase and decrease due to the continuous increase in world prices. The world supply decreased due to the limited supply drought and export policy.

Scenario for the last months of the year

Despite being affected by many factors, such as unfavorable weather, high input costs and agricultural materials, but through evaluation in the first 9 months of the year, localities still made efforts to ensure production scale. Good control of epidemics, basically an adequate supply of food to serve domestic consumption and export demand, contribute to stabilizing commodity prices in the market.

According to the Department of Agricultural Product Processing and Market Development, this is a critical premise to maintain production and ensure adequate food supply for the market in the last months of the year.

Forecast from now to the end of the year, if continuing to maintain and ensure the area of rice cultivation and harvest; stabilize livestock and poultry herds; With good results in re-herd of pigs and strictly controlled disease situation, the market will be stable, supply and demand will be balanced to ensure there is no shortage of food.

However, prices of some commodities, such as rice and pork, may increase slightly due to the demand during Tet holidays (the extent of the increase depends on the severity of the disease outbreak and the supply from imports). Meanwhile, prices of some commodities such as vegetables, tubers, fruits, and fresh food tended to be stable or slightly decreased due to abundant supply and steady demand.

At the meeting of the Government Price Steering Committee on October 13, 2022, the Ministry of Finance forecasted the price scenarios for some essential commodities as follows:

Firstly, if the price of pork increases by 10%, the cost of rice will increase by 5% (the impact of natural disasters in the last months of 2022 affects the CPI by about 0.05%). In the second scenario, if the price of pork increases by 15%, the cost of rice increases by 10% (the impact of natural disasters in the last months of 2022 affects CPI by about 0.1%).

Facing that situation, the Department of Agricultural Product Processing and Market Development proposed the Department of Crop Production to assess the production situation. Balance the supply and demand of rice, vegetables, and fruits to serve domestic needs among other countries, regions, localities, and export demand to stabilize market prices.

The Department of Livestock Production needs to balance pork, poultry, and grass-fed cattle supply and demand to serve domestic, regional, and local demand to stabilize market prices.

In addition, local guidance, functional forces, organizations and individuals raising pigs continue to promote re-herd production, processing, regulation, and supply assurance to stabilize pork prices.

In addition, the Directorate of Fisheries will specifically assess the situation of exploitation and farming and balance the supply and demand of aquatic products to serve domestic, regional, and local demand and export demand to stabilize market pricing; assess the causes and forecast the future.