Export growth is positive forecast for the second half of 2024

In the Industrial and Trade Production Report for the first six months of 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Trade noted that import and export activities in the first half of the year continued to prosper, achieving positive results.

With the recovery of the global market and the increase in export orders, the total import and export turnover of goods is estimated at $ 368.53 billion, an increase of 15.7% compared to the same period in 2023. Of this, exports increased by 14.5% (reaching $ 190.08 billion), and imports increased by 17%. The trade balance of goods showed a surplus of $ 11.63 billion.

The domestic economic sector achieved $ 53.39 billion in exports, up 20.6%, accounting for 28.1% of the total export turnover. The foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached $ 136.69 billion, up 12.3%, accounting for 71.9%.

In the first six months, 29 items achieved export turnover of over $ 1 billion, accounting for 91.4% of the total export turnover. Notably, seven items had export turnovers of over $5 billion, accounting for 65.6%. "Export growth is strong and evenly distributed across all three groups of goods (agricultural products, processed industrial products, and mineral fuels)", the Ministry of Industry and Trade emphasized.

In particular, the agricultural product group had already seen growth from 2023. Most items in this group achieved high growth rates in double digits compared to the same period last year, such as coffee, which increased by 34.5% in export value despite a 10.6% decrease in volume; rice increased by 32% in value and 10.4% in volume; and pepper increased by 30.9% in export value despite a 6.8% decrease in volume.

Additionally, tea of all kinds increased by 32.1%; vegetables and fruits increased by 28.2%; cashew nuts increased by 17.4%; and cassava and cassava products increased by 5.9% in value despite a 7.7% decrease in volume.

Regarding export markets, major trading partners have all recovered well and achieved high growth rates in double digits. The United States remains the largest export market, with an estimated turnover of $ 54.3 billion, accounting for 28.6% of the country's total export turnover, an increase of 22.1% over the same period.

Next is China, with an estimated turnover of $ 27.8 billion, up 5.3%. The EU market is estimated at $ 24.46 billion, up 14.1%. South Korea is estimated at $ 12.2 billion, up 10.4%.

In total, for the first six months of 2024, the trade balance of goods is estimated to have a surplus of $ 11.63 billion. The domestic economic sector had a trade deficit of $ 12.35 billion, while the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) had a trade surplus of $23.98 billion.

Forecasts for the second half of 2024 from the Ministry of Industry and Trade indicate that there are favourable factors from both international and domestic contexts to boost production and trade development.

Specifically, the global economy and trade are on a recovery path and expected to grow better in 2025. According to the WTO, global merchandise trade volume will grow by 3.3% in 2025. Vietnam's exports benefit from this wave. This is reflected in the fact that many export enterprises already have orders until the end of the Third Quarter of 2024.

Additionally, the increase in imports of raw materials for production in recent months indicates that the value of exported goods will continue to rise.

As per the usual cycle, the demand for goods will increase both domestically and in global markets at the end of the year. Vietnam is benefiting from the wave of shifting orders from the United States and has many advantages in boosting exports to China.

The rice export situation is expected to be favourable in the Third Quarter of 2024, largely due to the Philippines' decision to reduce rice import tariffs from the current 35% to 15%. This tariff reduction is anticipated to significantly boost demand for Vietnamese rice in the Philippines. In the first five months of the year, Vietnamese enterprises have already exported approximately 1.83 million tons of rice to the Philippines, which accounts for nearly 50% of the country's total rice exports during this period.