December 25, 2024 | 01:39 GMT +7

  • Click to copy
Wednesday- 14:14, 14/09/2022

Climate tipping points study provides clearest warning yet

(VAN) A new assessment of tipping points within the climate system concludes that far more stringent emissions cuts are needed, compared to the most ambitious current plans.
'Tipping points' refer to junctures in the climate system that, when crossed, can usher in irreversible changes. Tipping points include the near-complete melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet or the shutdown of the ocean current that includes the Gulf Stream.

"Tipping points" refer to junctures in the climate system that, when crossed, can usher in irreversible changes. Tipping points include the near-complete melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet or the shutdown of the ocean current that includes the Gulf Stream.

Why it matters: The new study, published Friday in Science, finds tipping points lurking much closer to the present level of warming, and that the Paris Agreement's most stringent warming target of 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels could trigger four of them.

These would include the abrupt thawing of permanently frozen soil that rings the Arctic and the die-off of warm-water coral reefs.

Context: The study defines a tipping point as when changes in a large part of the climate become self-perpetuating. Not every tipping point immediately affects the planet, and some are only felt regionally.

Still others — like the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, could take centuries to fully play out.

The big picture: The new study is a more complete but sobering read compared to a similar paper published in 2008, since it adds new tipping points to the list and concludes that at least four of them, including the abrupt thawing of permanently frozen soil that rings the Arctic, are likely to be set off at 1.5°C of warming.

"Current policies leading to [about] 2 to 3°C warming are unsafe," the study states.

Zoom in: The researchers put forward the idea of a tipping point early warning system, which could combine remote sensing, such as satellite measurements, with computer modeling and deep learning techniques.

Perhaps that way, alarms could be sounded before irreversible, harmful changes are set into motion.

What they're saying: "Since I first assessed climate tipping points in 2008 the list has grown and our assessment of the risk they pose has increased dramatically," said study co-author Tim Lenton, of the University of Exeter, in a statement.

"We now need to trigger positive social tipping points that accelerate the transformation to a clean energy future. We may also have to adapt to cope with climate tipping points that we fail to avoid, and support those who could suffer uninsurable losses and damages."

On the agenda at this gathering: "Positive tipping points," which are socio-economic steps that could help accelerate society's transition away from fossil fuels.

A new effort is launching to look at concerns over "cascading risks" that tipping points pose, where there's a chain reaction of sorts.

The new work is called the "Tipping Points Model Intercomparison Project", or “TIPMIP." It too is on the conference program.

The bottom line: In the 20 years since the first tipping points assessment came out, some have become nearly inevitable.

It's clear from this new paper and the broader research on this topic that without dramatic emissions cuts in the interim, we can't allow another 20 years to pass before we take another in-depth look.

Tr.D

(axios)

How to repair the planet? One answer might be hiding in plain sight

How to repair the planet? One answer might be hiding in plain sight

(VAN) We tend to look at environmental problems in isolation. A holistic approach would be more effective, a new report says.

Georgia farmers still grappling with $5.5 billion in Hurricane Helene storm losses

Georgia farmers still grappling with $5.5 billion in Hurricane Helene storm losses

(VAN) Twisted equipment and snapped tree limbs still litter Chris Hopkins’ Georgia farm more than two months after Hurricane Helene made its deadly march across the South.

US poultry sector prepares for mass deportations

US poultry sector prepares for mass deportations

(VAN) The US poultry processing industry has long relied on illegal workers, but huge adjustments are going to have to be made after President-elect Donald Trump takes power on 20 January 2025.

The future is dry: Why soil is the sexiest climate solution

The future is dry: Why soil is the sexiest climate solution

(VAN) Drought is projected to affect 75% of the world's population by 2050. Take that in.

Environmentalists call for a revision of poultry welfare standards

Environmentalists call for a revision of poultry welfare standards

(VAN) Voice of Animals, a Russian NGO, has prepared amendments to the draft veterinary regulation in the poultry industry, which is scheduled to come into force on 1 August 2025.

Hunger in the Arab region reaches a new height as challenges intensify

Hunger in the Arab region reaches a new height as challenges intensify

(VAN) From the FAO Regional Office for the Near East and North Africa.

A year of change for the UK poultry industry

A year of change for the UK poultry industry

(VAN) A year of change for both the UK’s broiler and egg sectors is highlighted in this year’s Andersons annual Outlook report.

Read more