The decoding of the ‘leap’ in vegetable and fruit exports

Consistently surpassing new milestones

Fruit and vegetable exports experienced substantial growth in the inaugural month of 2024, with a turnover of USD 490 million, which was more than double that of January 2023. Following a dull February, which was characterized by negligible growth in comparison to the same period in 2023 as a result of the Lunar New Year holiday, fruit and vegetable exports experienced consistent double-digit growth in the following months.

Export turnover for the fruit and vegetable sector reached an unprecedented monthly high of USD 917 million in September 2024, which was the sector's zenith. The record of USD 5.6 billion set in 2023 was surpassed by fruit and vegetable exports, which experienced remarkable growth month after month, by the conclusion of the first three quarters of 2024, reaching USD 5.641 billion. Exports surpassed USD 6 billion for the first time by the end of October 2024, reaching USD 6.16 billion. The figure increased to USD 6.6 billion by the end of November 2024, and it is anticipated to surpass USD 7 billion by the end of the year.

It is possible to assert that the fruit and vegetable industry's export turnover milestones in 2024 are accomplishments that were beyond the imagination of many just a few years ago. Fruit and vegetable exports were still below USD 4 billion in 2022. From 2017 to 2022, exports were unable to surpass the USD 4 billion threshold, remaining stagnant between just over USD 3 billion and nearly USD 4 billion for six consecutive years.

Fruit and vegetable exports did not make a significant breakthrough until 2023, when they surpassed the USD 4 billion and USD 5 billion milestones, establishing a new record of USD 5.6 billion. Building upon this momentum, 2024 experienced unprecedented growth, as previously mentioned.

Eight of the ten fruit and vegetable products with the highest export turnover in the first ten months of 2024 were fruits. These include durian (USD 3 billion), dragon fruit (USD 449 million), coconut (USD 313 million), banana (USD 312 million), mango (USD 308 million), jackfruit (USD 222 million), passion fruit (USD 147 million), and watermelon (USD 84 million).

A major imprint from the Chinese market

China is the primary market for Vietnamese fruits and vegetables, and its substantial contribution was essential to the tremendous growth of fruit and vegetable exports in 2024. Exports to China experienced a significant increase in the first month of 2024, surpassing USD 300 million -- a figure that was more than double that of the same period in 2023. The first quarter of 2024 saw an impressive overall growth rate of 32%, which was largely due to this robust performance, despite a decrease in export growth to China in February and March compared to January.

The continued impressive development in exports to China over the following two quarters was significantly influenced by this solid start. The previous record of over USD 3.6 billion set in 2023 for fruit and vegetable exports to China was surpassed by the end of the first three quarters of 2024, with a total of USD 3.8 billion. This represents a 38% increase from the same period in 2023.

Exports to China had increased to USD 4.3 billion by November 2024, approximately USD 1 billion more than they had been in the same period of 2023. Exports to China are anticipated to surmount USD 4.5 billion for the entirety of 2024, which will be the first time this market has surpassed the USD 4 billion threshold in a single year.

This accomplishment underscores the critical importance of the Chinese market, as the export turnover of fruit and vegetables to China alone in 2024 exceeded the total annual export turnover to all markets combined in any year prior to 2022.

Achieving favorable results through trade protocols

Nguyen Thanh Binh, Chairman of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association (Vinafruit), mainly attributed the robust growth of fruit and vegetable exports in 2024 to the significant increase in the production of key export fruits. For example, the full harvest of numerous durian plantations that were established five to six years ago was achieved in 2024, which significantly increased Vietnam's durian production. This laid the foundation for durian exports to surpass the USD 2.2 billion record set in 2023 and surpass USD 3 billion for the first time, accounting for approximately 50% of the total fruit and vegetable export turnover.

Furthermore, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) and associated agencies' endeavors to establish new markets were successful in 2024. China and other significant markets were awarded export access to a number of additional fruit items. Frozen durian and fresh coconut have been recently authorized for official export to China. The unprecedented milestones in fruit and vegetable exports in 2024 were achieved, according to Mr. Binh, as a result of the remarkable development in the Chinese market. Additionally, the sector's success was significantly bolstered by the remarkable growth of exports to other markets. Exports to the United States increased by 37%, reaching USD 320 million, while exports to South Korea rose by 40%, reaching USD 289 million, exports to Thailand increased by 79%, reaching USD 259 million, and exports to Japan climbed by 15%, reaching USD 189 million, during the first 11 months of 2024.

In 2024, Vietnamese fruits and vegetables were also crucial in an increase of exports to a variety of markets as a result of improved branding and enhanced trade promotion. Nevertheless, Mr. Binh observed that the favorable conditions that facilitated this extraordinary growth were not unique to 2024; they had been established in previous years, particularly through trade protocols signed with China. Each new protocol signed for specific fruits created substantial market opportunities and contributed to the overall growth of Vietnam, as China is the country's largest market for fruits and vegetables, accounting for 64-65% of the total export turnover under normal conditions. At present, 12 Vietnamese fruits, including fresh durian, are officially exported to China, which has significantly increased Vietnam's fruit and vegetable exports to China.

Mr. Binh recognized potential obstacles in the year 2025. It is anticipated that the administration of newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump will impose import tariffs on products from specific countries. The Chinese market could be further strained by an escalation of the U.S.-China trade conflict, which could have an impact on Vietnam's fruit and vegetable exports to China. Furthermore, the United States may be compelled to implement measures that impact Vietnamese exports to the United States, such as fruits and vegetables, in response to the expanding trade deficit between the two countries.

Nevertheless, Mr. Binh expressed his confidence that Vietnam's fruit and vegetable exports would continue to expand in 2025 and beyond, with the ultimate goal of achieving a USD 10 billion in export turnover, given the foundations that have already been established in production and market access. He underscored that MARD had played a critical role in directing the fruit and vegetable sector to align with global market trends, while also implementing policies to encourage exports and encourage increased participation by producers and traders in the export market..