Russia’s food blackmail must be resisted

One of the few glimmers of diplomatic light piercing the gloom caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a deal to keep grain shipments moving out of the Black Sea ports. This was brokered last summer by Turkey and the UN, amid fears about global food security given Ukraine’s central importance to the trade. However, hours before the agreement was due to expire, Russia refused to extend it.

The impact this will have on grain supplies and world food prices is obvious, with developing countries, especially in Africa, hardest hit as they are the main market. But the effects will be felt everywhere. On the markets, wheat, corn and soybean prices all rose on the news. 

While they remain below the levels reached in May last year before the initiative was put in place, a failure to negotiate a new deal could see those prices soar in the coming months. So far, the agreement has allowed 32 million tons of commodities to be exported from Odesa and two other Black Sea ports to 45 countries worldwide.

Russia is the world’s largest wheat supplier, and it is likely to weaponise its own exports to put further pressure on Western supporters of Ukraine already grappling with burgeoning inflation caused by rising energy and food costs.

Experts fear that Moscow will increase export taxes to raise grain prices further and help finance its military campaign. The irony is that the same countries providing Ukraine with the weapons to resist Russia are helping to fill the Kremlin’s coffers by buying its energy and food, either directly or indirectly. Doubtless, the UN will press Moscow to agree to a new deal but what price will Vladimir Putin demand?