Rice: A bright spot in the economic picture in the first seven months of the year

Over 24 million tons of rice in the first seven months of the year

On August 5, right after the Government’s regular meeting in July, the Government Office held a Government press conference to inform press agencies about the socio-economic situation in July and the first seven months of 2023, along with issues that gain the public's concern.

According to Minister-Chairman of the Government Office Tran Van Son, the Government's spokesperson, the socio-economic situation in July and in the past seven months continues to remain stable and develops with many bright spots, visibly better than June and the same period last year in many fields.

Specifically, the situation of the money and stock markets is basically stable, with a positive recovery trend, and interest rates continued to decrease. State budget revenue in seven months reaches over VND 1 quadrillion, equaling 62.7% of the estimate under the condition that taxes, fees, and charges must be extended, postponed, exempted, or reduced.

Imports and exports continue the uptrend. In July, exports increases by 2.1% over the previous month; imports increases by 2.4%; and the trade surplus reaches USD 3 billion. In general, in seven months, exports reaches more than USD 195 billion and imports reaches approximately USD 179 billion; the trade surplus reaches USD 16.5 billion.

Energy and food security are secured. In seven months, Vietnam produces more than 24 million tons of rice, ensuring domestic consumption and exporting over 4.8 million tons of rice with a turnover of USD 2.6 billion, up 18.7% in volume and 29.6% in value. It is estimated that the whole year will reach more than 43 million tons of rice, up 452,000 tons over the same period, and export 7.5 million tons of rice.

Major sectors and fields experience a good recovery. Agriculture continues to have many bright spots, being a solid fulcrum of the economy. Animal husbandry is stable. The output of seafood in July increases by 2.6%, and in seven months it increases by 1.9%. Agro-forestry-fishery exports in July reaches more than USD 4.6 billion, up 5.3% over the same period. In seven months, they reach more than USD 29 billion. Particularly, vegetable and fruit exports alone reach USD 3.2 billion.

The industry continues to recover. The index of industrial production (IIP) in July rose by 3.9% over the previous month and by 3.7% over the same period last year, of which processing and manufacturing rose by 3.6%.

Trade and services continue to increase quite well. The total retail sales of goods and services revenue in July increase by 1.1% compared to the previous month and by 7.1% compared to the same period. At the same time, over the past seven months, they have increased by 10.4%. International tourists in July reach more than 1 million arrivals, up 6.5% compared to the previous month and approximately three times higher than the same period. Therefore, July is the month with the largest number of international tourists since opening. The number of international tourists in seven months reaches approximately 6.6 million arrivals, 6.9 times higher than in the same period.

Capital investments achieve positive results. Disbursement of public investment in seven months reaches more than VND 267,000 billion, equivalent to 37.8% of the plan, up 3.38% in ratio and more than VND 80,000 billion in absolute figure. Total registered FDI capital in July reaches over USD 2.8 billion, up nearly 9% over the previous month. In seven months, total registered FDI capital reaches approximately USD 16.2 billion, up 4.5%, and realized FDI capital reaches USD 11.5 billion, up 0.8%. Vietnam continues to be an attractive destination for international investors.

The business development situation is more positive. In July, there are more than 13,700 newly registered enterprises, up 4.3% in number of enterprises and 2.4% in registered capital compared to the same period. As a whole, in seven months, approximately 132,000 enterprises enter and re-enter the market, more than the number of enterprises withdrawing from the market (113,000).

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) ranks Vietnam among 25 countries that have successfully reduced multidimensional poverty. Traffic accidents, damage caused by natural disasters, and fires have decreased. In seven months, the number of traffic accidents decreases by 9.3%, the number of deaths by 9.4%, and the number of people with minor injuries by 11.8%. The total value of property damage due to natural disasters decreases by 84.3%; damage due to fires decreases by 77.9%.

Prioritize removing difficulties for production and business

In addition to the achieved results, the Government members at the meeting frankly acknowledged the shortcomings, difficulties, and challenges faced and handled. In which the outstanding issues include stabilizing macroeconomics, many potential risks in major balances, and inflation that tends to decrease but is still under many pressures.

State budget revenue in seven months decreased over the same period due to a high on-balance sheet non-performing loan ratio, weak capital absorption, difficult access to capital, and low credit growth. Operating monetary policy faces difficulties in the context of many countries continuing to tighten monetary policy.

The business area continued to face difficulties, especially in terms of access to capital, and orders dropped. Demand in large, traditional markets declined. The industry continued to recover, but slowly.

The lives of a part of the population are still difficult. Climate change and natural disasters, especially landslides, continue to develop complicatedly. Social security, order, and safety still have many potential risks.

After analyzing the domestic, regional, and international situation, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized that the goals and focus of direction and management in the coming time of the ministries, branches, and localities are to prioritize removing difficulties for production and business and creating livelihoods for people and businesses. Along with that, promote growth associated with macroeconomic stability; control inflation; improve people's spiritual and material lives; maintain stability in politics, social order, and safety; and promote foreign affairs.

In particular, attention should be paid to ensuring, balancing, harmonizing, and being reasonable between interest rates and exchange rates; prioritizing growth promotion, especially the three driving forces of consumption, investment, and export.

The monetary policy needs to be proactive, flexible, and effective and continue to have appropriate solutions such as lowering interest rates, especially lending rates, restructuring debt, extending or postponing debt, increasing credit, and increasing the money supply in accordance with fit. Fiscal policy needs to be expansionary and focused, further reducing and extending taxes, fees, and charges, and accelerating tax refunds and public investment. The ministries, branches, and localities also need to focus on ensuring national monetary and financial security; shortening the process and procedures; and building institutions and legal documents.