Low pepper supply at the end of 2024

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), global pepper trade has decreased sharply in the first half of this year. The International Trade Center (ITC) statistics show that global pepper trade in the first five months of 2024 is estimated at 122,000 tons, down 26% compared to the same period in 2023.

Among the world's five largest pepper-exporting countries, Vietnam, Brazil, and Malaysia have decreased export volume in the first half of this year, with decreases of 6.8%, 6%, and 8.1%, respectively.

In contrast to the above three countries, pepper exports from Indonesia and India increased by 48.3% and 34.1%. However, since Vietnam and Brazil are the two largest pepper exporters in the world and account for the majority of pepper exports globally, the sharp increase in exports from Indonesia and India still cannot offset the decline in exports from Vietnam and Brazil.

Despite the decrease in export volume, the export price of pepper from Vietnam and other countries has increased sharply. Compared to the same period in 2023, in the first six months of 2024, the average free on board price of black and white pepper in most major producing countries, except for India, increased sharply.

Specifically, the average free on board price of black pepper increased by 27%, and the average free on board price of white pepper increased by 14% compared to last year. The most substantial increase was recorded in Brazilian black pepper, followed by Vietnam and Indonesia.

In Vietnam, the average export price of black pepper in the first six months reached USD 4,365 per ton; white pepper reached USD 5,983 per ton, up USD 922 for black pepper and USD 1,028 for white pepper respectively, compared to the same period in 2023.

Mrs. Hoang Thi Lien, Chairwoman of VPSA, commented that the shortage of pepper supply due to reduced harvest output in Vietnam and Brazil is the main reason for the increase in pepper prices in the world market.

The lack of pepper supply in Vietnam, causing the world pepper price to increase, has shown the importance of the Vietnamese pepper industry, a country with pepper output that is decisive to the global pepper market.

Regarding pepper supply in the last months of the year, VPSA said that Vietnam's exports in the first six months of 2024 reached 142,500 tons compared to the harvest output in 2024 of about 170,000 tons; the remaining production is estimated at 28,000 tons.

The inventory from the 2023 crop will be transferred to the import volume in 2024, which is about 40,000 to 45,000 tons. Thus, the export volume from August to the end of the year will be lower than every year and will last until March 2025, when the 2025 crop is expected to be harvested.

Pepper production in other countries, such as Brazil and Indonesia, is expected to decrease this year, affecting the supply for the last months 2024.

Despite the decrease in exports, Vietnamese pepper still holds the largest market share in many major markets. According to statistics from Eurostat, in the first five months of 2024, the EU imported 49,000 tons of pepper from non-bloc markets, worth EUR 225 million (equivalent to nearly USD 244 million), up 22.2% in volume and 29.8% in value compared to the same period last year.

The EU imported over 31,000 tons of pepper from Vietnam, worth nearly EUR 136 million (equivalent to USD 147 million), up 24.7% in volume and 35.7% in value over the same period last year. Vietnam's pepper market share in the EU's total imports from the extra-bloc market accounted for 64.18% of the total volume and 60.44% of the total turnover in the first five months of 2024.

Information from the US International Trade Commission said that in the first five months of 2024, the US imported 37,000 tons of pepper, worth USD 176 million, up 33.3% in volume and 34.8% in value over the same period last year.

The US imported 28,000 tons of pepper from Vietnam, worth USD 130 million, up 26.5% in volume and 30.4% in value. Vietnam's pepper market share in total US imports was 73.9% in the first five months of 2024.

It is forecasted that this year, pepper exports could reach the USD 1 billion mark, something Vietnam has not been able to do for many years.