Global pork production forecasted to drop in 2022

According to the latest reports from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global pork production volume is forecasted to decrease by 2% in 2022 down to 104,2 million tons. This is mainly due to the lower pork production rate in China.

A tightening supply of pigs is expected to become more serious because of lowered pig weights, low pork prices and high feed prices.

Pork production volume in the USA is expected to experience a slight drop in 2022. Little storage of pigs as well as producers' intention to keep sows at a low late at the end of 2021 will cause the supply to continue its decrease in the future.

US exports are however expected to increase by 3% as demands in most major markets have improved.

More imports into China will help meat exports activities of the USA. USDA forecasts China’s pork production volume will decrease in 2022 as the swine industry has adjusted in response to rapidly changing environmental conditions while the price for animal feed continues to skyrocket.

Hog prices in China have dropped significantly since the beginning of 2021 and remained low despite the recovery in the last months of 2021. Intensive butchering in 2021 has increased the output of pork production and frozen pork storage, but higher demand from consumers in autumn and winter in China will deplete these frozen pork stocks. These factors may cause pork production volume to decrease and pork importation to increase in China in 2022 especially in the latter half of the year.

In the plan of the Chinese Government in 2022, instead of encouraging production from small and medium farming households, large-cap companies will be the ones enjoying preferential policies.

China's pork imports are expected to reach nearly 4,8 million tons in 2022, an increase of nearly 6% after suffering a drop in 2021. Even so imports will remain below the 2020 record as pork supplies are heavily affected by the pandemic.