Food shortages, rising prices ... we've been warning about this for years

As the Ukraine war kindles fears of rising food prices, the recognition of a secure domestic food supply – driven in large part by irrigated agriculture in the Western U.S. – is something we need to talk about.

The Family Farm Alliance last month released a report that describes current and projected food shortages resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war. This is nothing new, from our standpoint. The domestic food security issue is a concern that we’ve warned our policy leaders about for more than 15 years.

The U.S. needs a stable domestic food supply, just as it needs a stable energy supply. As we teeter on the brink of escalating warfare, that stability becomes even more pressing.

More than 80% of our country’s fruits, nuts and vegetables are grown west of the Rockies. The 17 Western states are also home to nearly three-quarters of the nation’s cattle industry. 

Drought and federal policy decisions are jeopardizing this food supply.

Other nations are acting to prevent food crises

Government water policy decisions made in California and Oregon are currently withholding once-reliable water from farmers in order to meet perceived environmental priorities.

In simple terms, our own government is actually voluntarily directing measures that restrict water to farmers. Sadly, this diminishes our food production capacity, and with it, our national security.

There was for a long time an inborn appreciation and awareness by our policy leaders for the critical importance of a stable food supply. Now, it appears that many Americans simply assume that food is something that comes from the local grocery store.

On the other hand, countries who have starved within memory understand the importance of preserving and protecting their food production capability. Business Post reported last month that all farmers in Ireland will be asked to plant their land in grains, as part of emergency plans to offset a predicted food security crisis in Europe amid Russia’s ongoing assault on Ukraine.

Western ranchers and farmers are major contributors to our national food and fiber production capacity, once the envy of the word. Unfortunately, without restoring balance among competing water uses, these producers cannot continue to operate.

Yet Central Arizona farmers are fallowing land

Central Arizona agriculture is a vital part of that mix. Pinal County has a $2.3 billion agricultural economy. It produces 45% of Arizona’s cattle and calf sales and 39% of Arizona’s milk and dairy sales, primarily for the burgeoning Phoenix and Tucson metro areas. Surrounding farms grow feed for that well-placed industry, without incurring significant transportation costs.

In Central Arizona, the primary hardships to irrigated farmers and ranchers – particularly to producers in Pinal County – are due to Colorado River operating guidelines, where Central Arizona Project (CAP) agricultural water supply priorities take the back seat to cities and tribes.

Most CAP farmers are losing 70% of their CAP supplies this year. In 2023 and beyond, they’ll lose 100% if the Colorado River hydrology does not improve.

With insufficient access to groundwater, Pinal County irrigation districts will see 25-50% of its farmland go out of production. These barren fields will create dust and other environmental hazards. Taking this much land out of production could also escalate food supply costs in neighboring counties and create other unintended consequences.

Don't take Western farmers for granted

Fortunately, American consumers who have experienced supply chain disruptions over the past two years are now starting to recognize that the Ukraine war could impact global food supplies. Those consumers will soon see further shortages and higher prices at the store.

Unfortunately, once the grocery shelves are bare, it will be too late.

In a world of global uncertainties, we can’t afford to take the farms that produce our food for granted. Western irrigated agriculture must continue to play a vital role in feeding our nation, while keeping our rural communities and the environment healthy.

One certainty holds firm and true – our nation’s most valuable natural resource must be preserved.

Paul Orme is an Arizona rancher, attorney and board member of the Family Farm Alliance, a nonprofit organization that represents Western family farmers, ranchers, water districts and allied industries. Alliance Executive Director Dan Keppen lives in Klamath Falls, Oregon. Reach them at pro@slwplc.com and dan@familyfarmalliance.org.