FAO analysis maps Nationally Determined Contributions, identifies opportunities, gaps & risks related to agrifood climate solutions

A new analysis from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) finds that almost all countries identify agrifood systems as a priority for climate change adaptation (94 percent) and mitigation (91 percent) in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This highlights the tremendous potential of agrifood systems as climate solutions, especially as countries prepare to submit their third round of NDCs in 2025.

NDCs are national climate action plans and the primary tool for achieving the Paris Agreement's goals. The FAO Agrifood Systems in Nationally Determined Contributions: Global Analysis sends an urgent message for policymakers: if we are to address the climate crisis and deliver on the Paris Agreement, agrifood solutions must be at the fore.

In this regard, the Global Analysis provides valuable data to help countries enhance these plans, particularly by addressing gaps in mitigation, adaptation, and climate finance within agrifood systems. It offers an overview of the major climate-related risks and greenhouse gas hotspots in this sector and synthesizes key adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Key findings and gaps

The study reveals that food insecurity and biodiversity loss are the most frequently reported climate-related risks, featuring in 88% of NDCs. These risks that threaten to undermine hard-earned sustainable development gains are particularly severe in sub-Saharan Africa, where climate change is increasing hunger and poverty.

Around two-thirds of all countries report climate-related impacts and risks for crop-based systems in their NDCs, while around one-half do for livestock, forest, and ocean and coastal-based fisheries and aquaculture systems. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and low-income countries (LICs) report climate-related risks at a higher rate than the global average, especially risks to agrifood systems and food security; livelihoods, poverty and inequality.

The analysis also shows that inequalities within agrifood systems remain a significant barrier in NDCs. Addressing poverty and inequality is increasingly recognized as essential for adaptation and fair transitions, but only a fraction of NDCs target the specific vulnerabilities, risks and capacities of different segments of the agrifood population. Without greater attention to these socioeconomic gaps, agrifood systems risk leaving the most marginalized groups even more exposed to the impacts of climate change.

Similarly, mitigation gaps in agrifood systems are significant. While agriculture and food systems are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, current NDCs address only around 40% of these emissions. This leaves the potential for doubling ambition in future NDCs and action. Livestock emissions are particularly neglected, with 66% unaddressed, and pre- and postproduction emissions fare even worse, with an 82% gap. Without closing these gaps, achieving global temperature targets will be nearly impossible. Even if fossil fuel emissions were eliminated, unaddressed agrifood emissions would make it almost impossible to limit warming to 1.5°C, with even 2°C a daunting challenge.

Adaptation planning efforts also fall short. While agrifood adaptation measures in NDCs are relatively comprehensive, their effectiveness is uncertain due to lack of clarity regarding feasibility, and robustness. Without more coordinated and effective planning and investment, adaptation efforts will struggle to keep pace with escalating climate risks.

Costs of climate change in agrifood systems and climate financing needs

The study shows that there is also an immense financial cost associated with decades of relative climate inaction in agrifood systems. Agriculture bears the brunt of climate-related disasters, suffering hundreds of billions of dollars in losses annually ‒ equivalent to 5% of global agricultural GDP over the past 30 years. Between 2007 and 2022, agriculture accounted for 23% of total disaster-related losses, with droughts responsible for over 65%.

The scale of the climate finance gap further highlights the challenges ahead. Transforming agrifood systems to withstand climate pressures will require USD 1.15 trillion annually until 2030, but current funding averages only USD 28.5 billion annually. To bridge this gap would require a massive 40-fold increase in agrifood system investments per year until 2030, according to a study cited by the Global Analysis.

While countries recognize the need to scale up funding for agrifood systems, current estimates in NDCs still cover only one-sixth of the required finance, meaning a critical opportunity to mobilize resources for developing countries and implement actionable investment plans could be missed. The good news is that with a deadline of early 2025 to submit updated NDCs, countries still have a small window to increase their ambitions in this regard.

Agrifood opportunities – the way forward

The recent Global Stocktake made it clear that despite current NDC pledges, the world is far from achieving the Paris’s agreement’s climate goals. Agrifood systems are vital for food security, livelihoods, and economies, but remain uniquely vulnerable to climate change.

Despite the challenges, agrifood systems offer tremendous potential. This is reflected in the current NDCs of nearly every country, as the study shows.

When thoughtfully crafted, agrifood climate actions ripple outward, delivering co-benefits across the Sustainable Development Goals—lifting people from poverty (SDG 1), ending hunger (SDG 2), and safeguarding biodiversity (SDG 15). A third of NDCs already explicitly connect agrifood solutions to broader development goals – by aligning agrifood priorities in NDCs with other climate and biodiversity plans, multilateral environmental agreements, food systems transformation pathways, and other similar development pathways, there are unique opportunities for transformational change.

Bold, data-driven plans and adequate funding are essential to unlock the potential of agrifood systems. As outlined in the study, countries must bridge the gaps—in emissions, equity, and finance—not only to protect these systems but also to realize their potential as a cornerstone of climate resilience, mitigation and sustainable development.