Corn stays firm, wheat fades

Traders squared positions ahead of a three-day holiday weekend on Thursday, with mixed results. Corn prices fared the best, firming nearly 1% on a round of technical buying over concerns about tightening global supplies and possible planting delays in the U.S.

Nearby soybean contracts also trended slightly higher today. In contrast, wheat prices stumbled significantly, with most contracts down 1.5% to 2.5% on a round of technical selling and profit-taking.

Most of the central U.S. will see at least some measurable moisture over Easter weekend, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Parts of the Mid-South are likely to see the largest amounts between Friday and Monday. NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for the western half of the country between April 21 and April 27, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for most of the Midwest and Plains during this time.

On Wall St., the Dow trended 105 points in afternoon trading to 34,670, although investors remain concerned over high inflation and how aggressively the Federal Reserve may ramp up interest rates to combat it. Energy prices continued to push higher today, with crude oil up another 2.5% this afternoon to $107 per barrel. Diesel rose 3.5%, with gasoline up 2.75%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.

On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+4,000), soybeans (+1,500), soyoil (+4,500) and CBOT wheat (+4,500) contracts but were net sellers of soymeal (-3,500).

NOTE: Grain markets will be closed on Friday, April 15, in observance of Good Friday. Be sure to come back to Farm Futures first thing Monday morning (4/18) for our next round of news and analysis.

Corn

Corn prices remained in a bullish environment today, with worries about possible U.S. planting delays and Ukraine grain unavailable for export triggering another round of technical buying. May futures added 7.5 cents to $7.91, with July futures up 6.5 cents to $7.8450.

Corn basis bids were steady to mixed on Thursday, dropping as much as 6 cents at an Ohio elevator and firming as much as 5 cents at an Illinois ethanol plant today.

Old crop corn sales jumped 70% week-over-week to 52.5 million bushels. New crop sales added another 15.9 million bushels for a total of 68.4 million bushels. That was near the middle of trade estimates, which ranged between 45.3 million and 98.4 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are running slightly behind last year’s pace, with 1.393 billion bushels.

Corn export shipments inched 1% below the prior four-week average to 61.4 million bushels. China, Mexico, Japan, Colombia and Canada were the top five destinations.

South Korea purchased 2.7 million bushels of animal feed corn from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival around August 10.

With fuel prices substantially higher than they were a year ago, here are six ways you can cut costs today, plus a look at where fuel prices may be headed next. Click here to learn more.

Speaking of fuel, President Joe Biden made an announcement earlier this week that the administration would allow E15 to be used year-round (it is typically restricted during summer months). Some experts believe the move will increase ethanol demand by 300 million gallons. Farm Futures policy editor Jacqui Fatka offers additional reporting on the matter – click here for details.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 286,954 contracts, falling moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 395,446.

Soybeans

Soybean prices tested moderate overnight gains that largely evaporated by the close today after an uneven round of technical maneuvering. May futures added 5 cents to $16.81, while July futures eased half a penny lower to $16.6450.

Soybean basis bids were steady to weak on Thursday after dropping 3 cents at an Ohio elevator and 9 cents at an Illinois river terminal today.

Private exporters announced the sale of 4.9 million bushels of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year, which began September 1. Click here for a full list of recent flash sales reported to USDA.

Old crop soybean sales spilled 41% lower week-over-week to 20.2 million bushels. New crop sales accounted for another 16.8 million bushels, bringing the total to 37.0 million bushels. That was near the middle of trade estimates, which ranged between 14.7 million and 55.1 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are still substantially behind last year’s pace, with 1.658 billion bushels.

Soybean export shipments improved 19% from the prior four-week average, with 29.6 million bushels. China, Mexico, Germany, Egypt and the Netherlands were the top five destinations.

Did you know that nine crops have relatively tight global stocks? It’s not normal for so many crops to be in this position, explains Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Stewart Peterson. “Corn, soybeans, winter wheat, spring wheat, canola, cotton, barley, oats and sorghum all have tight ending stock supplies due to a combination of strong demand over the past two years and imperfect crop growing conditions last year,” she notes. Click here to learn more about what that means for U.S. production this season in the latest Ag Marketing IQ blog.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 195,764 contracts, tracking 13% below Wednesday’s final count of 223,967.

Wheat

Wheat prices faced substantial cuts on a round of technical selling and profit-taking Thursday but remain at historically high levels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and lingering concerns over low U.S. crop quality.

Old crop wheat sales fell 39% lower week-over-week to 3.5 million bushels. New crop sales added another 8.3 million bushels, for a total of 11.8 million bushels. That was on the lower end of analyst estimates, which came in between 7.3 million and 23.9 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year remain moderately below last year’s pace, with 593.3 million bushels.

Wheat export shipments were 7% better than the prior four-week average, with 12.5 million bushels. The Philippines, Japan, Mexico, Guatemala and Panama were the top five destinations.

Consultancy Strategie Grains slightly trimmed its estimates for European Union soft wheat production in 2022/23, to 4.655 billion bushels – a year-over-year decrease of 3.2%, if realized. The group also slightly raised its estimates for 2022/23 EU corn production to 2.642 billion bushels.

Egypt is purchasing 12.9 million bushels of milling wheat from France, Bulgaria and Russia in a tender that closed yesterday. Egypt is the world’s No. 1 wheat importer.

Jordan issued a new international tender to purchase 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closes on April 20. The grain is for shipment in June and/or August. Jordan has failed to close deals on multiple similar tenders issued earlier this spring.

Japan purchased 4.2 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed earlier today. Of the total, 54% was sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment in June.

Taiwan issued an international tender to purchase 1.7 million bushels of grade 1 milling wheat from the United States that closes on April 21. The grain is for shipment in June.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 75,963 CBOT contracts, spilling well below Wednesday’s final count of 132,978.