COP28: 5 reasons to pay attention to crucial climate change talks in Dubai

For two weeks from Nov 30, world leaders, industry power brokers and financiers will converge on the United Arab Emirates for the latest round of annual United Nations-led climate change negotiations.The pressure on leaders to take action will be higher than ever at COP28 - the Conference of the Parties - in Dubai, with the planet reaching the “era of global boiling”, as proclaimed by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. 

Despite a year of unprecedented heat and a raft of catastrophic climate-fuelled disasters, geopolitical standoffs and regional conflicts in Europe and the Middle East mean finding consensus and pathways to real progress will again likely prove a steep challenge.

Singapore Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu will be co-facilitating negotiations on mitigation at the conference, the third time she has played a role in anchoring the talks.

Here are five important things to know about COP28.

1. “STOCKTAKE” ON PARIS AGREEMENT

For the first time, countries have been mandated to demonstrate their progress in implementing climate goals since the advent of the Paris Agreement in 2015. It is designed as a form of inventory-taking at a crucial inflexion point halfway between that historic treaty and 2030, the year by which climate science has determined much needs to be achieved. 

Global emissions need to be nearly halved by the end of the decade for the world to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a key metric to avoid the absolute worst impacts of climate change.The UN has described the stocktake as a “moment to take a long, hard look at the state of our planet and chart a better course for the future”. It wants countries to both live up to their promises and accelerate their ambitions for the decades to come.

For the past two years, data has been collected, and technical assessments have been ongoing to produce the global stocktake.

Preliminary findings are sobering - progress to reduce carbon emissions has been painfully slow. But it paints an optimistic picture about the role of global talks to change that trajectory. 

At COP28, governments will get a final look at the report, which should inform their negotiations. Feasibly, it could help nations change course or reset their pathways, if necessary.

2. SHADOW OF A DISASTER-FUELLED YEAR

The 12 months since the last COP negotiations in Egypt have been yet another demonstration of the powerful wrath of a fast-warming planet. 

Leading science indicates that human activity -  or anthropogenic climate change - is a primary cause of intensifying and damaging weather phenomena.The planet recorded the hottest three-month period ever during the northern hemisphere summer from June to August this year, and 2023 is on track to be the second hottest in known history.

Record heat waves were felt across large swathes of Europe, leading to damaging wildfires and followed by damaging rainstorms.More than 10,000 people died after severe flooding when Storm Daniel struck Libya, while Hong Kong, Taiwan and southern China were inundated by two typhoons - Saola and Haikui. 

Australia is bracing for another catastrophic fire summer and Southeast Asia for prolonged drought conditions, following the onset of El Niño climatic conditions, which bring warmer temperatures and less rainfall to those regions.The disasters have made a mark on major polluter, the United States, as well, which recorded no less than 23 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in the first eight months of the year, a new record.

The extent of the damage and loss experienced and the spectre of worse days to come will haunt these negotiations. 

3. PHASING OUT FOSSIL FUELS

One of the biggest question marks hanging over COP28 is the role of the oil tycoon sitting in the conference’s biggest chair. Sultan Al Jaber will preside over the negotiations, while at the same time remaining in his role as the head of the country’s national oil company, ADNOC.It is a duality that has sparked anger among environmental groups and advocates and cast doubt over the viability of the global talks to deliver an ambitious green agenda.

In Dubai, European Union member states will lead a vanguard to totally phase out the “unabated” use of fossil fuels. 

What unabated means exactly has yet to be defined but the bloc is framing itself as the leader of ambition when it comes to the green transition. 

Oil-producing nations have stood in the way of a push to phase out the use of fossil fuels. At previous COPs, language in final agreements has been watered down in concession to those nations and the same contest and resistance is expected this time around.

Regardless, world energy systems are changing, despite a global energy crisis inflamed by the Ukraine war.The International Energy Agency reported in October that fossil fuels still make up about 80 per cent of all energy use. But investment in clean energy has risen by 40 per cent since 2020 and momentum behind wind, solar and other green technologies could see fossil fuel use peak before 2030, the IEA found.

A downturn in the Chinese economy could see its overall fossil fuel demand - especially from coal use - and its emissions decline at a scale that has significant scope to shift the climate needle.

4. HUNT FOR CLIMATE FINANCING SOLUTIONS

Developed countries have repeatedly failed to mobilise the promised US$100 billion per year for developing countries between 2020 and 2025. 

The money is meant to be provided to help poorer nations mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change but has never been fulfilled. This year could be the first time it happens.

A new type of climate finance goal will be further discussed at COP28, given that even the US$100b goal is just a fraction of what needs to be unlocked to help developing nations achieve their goals under the Paris Agreement.How this new goal is formulated will likely be less arbitrary but highly complex, aimed at avoiding duplication, focused on debt relief and targeted at finding more money, whether it be from government development banks or private finance sources.Developing countries still want their richer counterparts to make up for the shortcomings over previous years too.Meanwhile, tensions are expected to remain high around a loss and damage fund. Loss and damage is the notion that developed nations responsible for climate change should provide financial assistance to nations suffering the worst impacts.A transitional group set up in Egypt last year has failed to work out a set of recommendations on how the fund would work or who would manage it.It could prove a major sticking point in Dubai, and leave many vulnerable nations still exposed to the high costs of the disasters besetting them. 

5. DEFORESTATION TALKS SET TO BE HOT

After progress in 2021, which saw global deforestation levels drop by 6.3 per cent, the rate of land being razed was back up again by 4 per cent in 2022. Some 6.6 million hectares were lost last yea r, the equivalent of the size of Sri Lanka.

At COP26 in Glasgow, 145 countries signed a pledge to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030 as a tool to combat climate change. 

Despite that pledge, deforestation trends are pointing the wrong way, raising the heat on the need for constructive talks at COP28. 

The globe remains well off track on reaching its 2030 goal, but certain countries including Indonesia and Malaysia - home to some of the most important rainforests in the world and central to discussions - have made more significant progress in slowing down deforestation.

Major sticking points for Indonesia to maintain its commitment to the pledge exist around the palm oil industry and the impediments for smaller farmers in particular to meet sustainability certification standards required by European Union buyers, a crucial export market.

Amazon nations failed to agree to unified deforestation goals at a summit in August.