Coffee exports in 2023/2024 crop year surpass USD 5 billion

According to Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), during 2023 and 2024 (from October 1, 2023, to September 30, 2024), Vietnam exported approximately 1.46 million tons of coffee, a 12.1% decrease compared to the 2022/2023 season. Despite the drop in volume, export value soared by 33.1%, reaching USD 5.43 billion, marking the highest export value ever in a coffee season.

This was also the first time that Vietnamese coffee exports in a single season surpassed USD 5 billion. The increase in export prices was the key driver for this milestone. Data from the General Department of Customs showed that in September alone, the average export price of coffee reached $5,469 per ton, the highest in history, up 5.8% from the previous month and 68.7% compared to September 2023.

For the entire 2023/2024 year crop, the average export price was USD 3,673 per ton, nearly 50% higher than in the previous year crop. With such a surge, coffee is currently the fastest-growing agricultural export product in terms of price among Vietnam’s major agricultural exports.

In terms of market share, the European Union (EU) continued to be Vietnam’s largest coffee export market during the 2023/2024 year crop, with a volume of 563 thousand tons worth USD 2 billion. This represents an 8.6% drop in volume but a 41% increase in value compared to the previous season, accounting for 38% of Vietnam’s coffee export volume and 37% of export value.

Germany, Italy, and Spain were Vietnam's top three individual coffee markets in the past season, with export values of USD 607 million, USD 417 million, and USD 413 million, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 37%, 30%, and 75% compared to the 2022/2023 season.

Other major markets also saw strong growth in export value despite declining volumes, such as Japan (up 38%) and Russia (up 20%).

The supply shortage in the 2023/2024 year crop not only pushed coffee prices higher but also affected coffee inventory levels for the start of the 2024/2025 year crop. According to coffee industry traders, as early as May 2024, the coffee supply had already run out. As a result, the inventory carried over into the 2024/2025 year crop is nearly zero.

Coffee prices for the 2024/2025 year crop are expected to remain high. Since early October, coffee prices in the Central Highlands region have consistently been over VND 110,000 per kilogram, nearly double the price at the start of the 2023/2024 year crop.

Vietnamese coffee prices for the entire 2024/2025 year crop are projected to stay high due to declining production. According to the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, coffee output for the 2024/2025 year crop may decrease by 15% compared to the 2023/2024 year crop. In May and June each year, coffee cherries in the Central Highlands grow rapidly and need sufficient water for this process. However, in May and June this year, coffee-growing areas in the Central Highlands suffered water shortages, causing smaller beans and thus lowering yields.

Additionally, coffee acreage continues to shrink as many farmers switch to cultivating other fruit crops such as durian and avocado, contributing to the expected decline in Vietnam’s coffee output for the 2024/2025 year crop. It is likely that the 2024/2025 year crop will witness Vietnam’s lowest coffee production in many years.

Meanwhile, coffee consumption demand in both Vietnam and globally continues to rise. In its Global Coffee Market Report, Mordor Intelligence forecasts that the global coffee market will reach an estimated USD 132.13 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 166.39 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.72% during the forecast period (2024–2029).